Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
64% 20.0pp
24h volume
$226.6K
Orrery Pulse5% current2-16% 7D range-10.8pp net move
19%14%9%5%0%
5%
May 275%-10.8pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 27May 27
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Top read
24h Δ 20.0pp, 1h Δ 12.0pp · Turnover 4.9× liquidity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.1pp, 1h Δ -3.5pp · Turnover 12.9× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 1.5× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp · 1h Δ 2.0pp
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ -10.1pp · 1h Δ 1.6pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresUMA PENDING
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26?UMA PENDING
High
Low
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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 78/77 78/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 58/90 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 76 | 64/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 61/86 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 27, 2026
Read full brief - US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? probability up 20.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 resolves in 10h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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