Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Resolves in 15h — verify the source
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
51% 15.0pp
24h volume
$408.0K
Orrery Pulse58% current50-74% 7D range+8.0pp net move
78%70%62%53%45%
58%
May 2558%+8.0pp from start
May 23May 23May 24May 24May 24May 25May 25May 25
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysPAST EVENT
—
Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
—
—
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsPAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. CavaliersPAST EVENT
—
—
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensPAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)PAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)PAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5PAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)PAST EVENT
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 94/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/78 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 85/91 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 84/87 84/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability up 16.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? resolves in 15h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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