Resolves in 5h — verify the source
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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?MIXED EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
31% 4.0pp
24h volume
$380.3K
Orrery Pulse22% current16-27% 7D range+2.0pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
22%
May 1622%+2.0pp from start
May 15May 15May 15May 15May 15May 16May 16May 16
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 55/99 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 16, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? probability down 5.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? shows a divergence pattern at 55% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (1)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
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