MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
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TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolves in 29h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Top read
24h Δ -6.0pp · 1h Δ 4.0pp
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi
24h Δ -4.5pp, 1h Δ -0.5pp · Turnover 41.6× liquidity
3Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -4.5pp, 1h Δ -0.1pp · Turnover 2.6× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 6.2× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?UMA PENDING
High
High
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Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5EXPIRED
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 76/88 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 74/94 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/82 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 75 | 62/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 75 | 76/82 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? probability down 14.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? shows a divergence pattern at 81% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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