Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
51% 13.5pp
24h volume
$409.6K
Orrery Pulse89% current49-92% 7D range+38.5pp net move
99%85%70%55%41%
89%
May 2689%+38.5pp from start
May 20May 21May 22May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysPAST EVENT
—
Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
—
—
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsPAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. CavaliersPAST EVENT
—
—
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensPAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)PAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)PAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
—
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5PAST EVENT
—
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)PAST EVENT
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/78 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 94/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 83/87 82/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability up 14.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Spurs vs. Thunder resolves in 23h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (2)
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.