Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 6?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+9.6pp
24h Vol
$596.95
Liquidity
$8.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 4h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 97¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $8.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.9h
- 16:07SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h.
Price movement
+9.6pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on May 6 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 6?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:07:53 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$596.95 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $652.18. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
