OtherExpires Apr 20, 2026

Set 1 Winner: Galarneau vs Uchida

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 20:38Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexis Galarneau and Kaichi Uchida in the Busan, scheduled for April 13 2026. This market will resolve to “Galarneau” if Alexis Galarneau wins the first set. It will resolve to “Uchida” if Kaichi Uchida wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 20, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
that completed set
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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