Izquierdo vs. Mrva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Probability
90¢
1h
-9.6pp
24h
+40.5pp
24h Vol
$290.16
Liquidity
$18.83
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 41pp over 24h
Now 90¢; -9.6pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 163h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 04UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 163.3h
- 12:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 163h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+40.5pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo and Maxim Mrva in the Ostrava, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (19.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.