SportsExpires May 4, 2026

Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5)

Probability

38¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-28.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 06:00Apr 27, 2026, 07:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 28pp over 24h

    Now 38¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 43¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 169.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-27.5pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMadrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Adolfo Vallejo in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Cobolli" if Flavio Cobolli wins by 2 or more sets than Adolfo Vallejo, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Vallejo." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official ATP result
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

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