Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-1.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 3¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $15.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 105.4h
- 14:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 4¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 4¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).