DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by May 31?
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$20.34
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of JusticeTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of JusticeTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1864.2h
- 07:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Department of Justice (DOJ) releases any audio recording of interviews conducted between Joe Biden and ghostwriter Marc Zwonitzer to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Released to the public refers to the DOJ making the audio recordings freely accessible to the general public for listening, downloading, or other forms of public accessibility. A qualifying release must be intentional by the DOJ; leaks or hacks will not qualify. Paywalls or similar restrictions will not disqualify a public release. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Department of Justice; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
doj releaseReason
DOJ document-release markets — Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by May 31?"?
As of Wed, 13 May 2026 07:46:48 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 30, 2026 (2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$20.34 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $20.34. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 15.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
