PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-8.5pp

24h Vol

$118.84

Liquidity

$552.12

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 05:00May 8, 2026, 22:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T22-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 9pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $552 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 19¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 161.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-8.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at 18:00 (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -14.0pp → 11¢
  • 18:00 · -17.5pp → 8¢
  • 05:00 · -13.0pp → 19¢
  • 04:00 · -12.5pp → 19¢
  • 02:00 · -14.5pp → 17¢
  • 01:00 · -12.0pp → 20¢
  • 23:00 · -10.0pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · -12.0pp → 20¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDonald Trump # Truth Social posts May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between May 8, 12:00 PM ET and May 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains "trump" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 22:08:48 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$118.84 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $168.22. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $552.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket