EU debt downgrade before 2027?
Probability
17¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-34.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 17.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.8h
- 14:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 21¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 17¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 18¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -43.0pp
to 17¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 17¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 21¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 18¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.5pp
to 18¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 21¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 19¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.0pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 21¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -42.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -47.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -38.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (17.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).