Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+1.3pp
24h Vol
$70.97
Liquidity
$18.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1597.0h
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).