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BusinessExpires Apr 22, 2026

Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?

Probability

91¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

+1.9pp

24h Vol

$168.85

Liquidity

$1.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:41
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 91¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 4.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  3. 3

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, General Dynamics is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for General Dynamics's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if General Dynamics reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If General Dynamics releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://seekingalpha.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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