Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2026?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.65
Liquidity
$198.24
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.4h
- 16:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hailey Bieber announces that she is pregnant between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice. The resolution source will be statements from Hailey Bieber, Justin Bieber, or their representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).