Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?
Probability
89¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+15.0pp
24h Vol
$7.14
Liquidity
$342.34
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+38.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 15pp over 24h
Now 89¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 81.7h
- 03:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+15.0pp over the last 24h, now 89¢.
Biggest hourly move: +40.0pp at 00:00 (to 89¢).
Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +38.5pp → 89¢
- 01:00 · +38.5pp → 89¢
- 00:00 · +40.0pp → 89¢
- 22:00 · +26.0pp → 75¢
- 20:00 · +25.5pp → 75¢
- 19:00 · +26.0pp → 75¢
- 17:00 · +25.5pp → 75¢
- 13:00 · +26.0pp → 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
As of market creation, Hess Midstream is estimated to release earnings on May 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hess Midstream's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.65 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hess Midstream reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.65 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Hess Midstream releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Alerts
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