Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$27.35
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-28.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 32h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 32 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 31.9h
- 21:07SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.5pp at 1d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 46 hourly moves
- 18:00 · -29.5pp → 6¢
- 10:00 · -29.5pp → 6¢
- 03:00 · -29.5pp → 6¢
- 23:00 · -29.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -29.0pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -29.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -29.0pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -29.0pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for April 29 at 1:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Cerezo Ōsaka" if Cerezo Ōsaka win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vissel Kōbe". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on jleague.jp. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (5.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.