Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$187.01
Probability (last 7 days)
-36.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 13¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2314h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2314.4h
- 13:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2314h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:33PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 13¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 12¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau end their romantic relationship by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it's unclear whether or not they are in a romantic relationship, this market will resolve to the side with the stronger argument based on credible reporting. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry, Justin Trudeau, or one of their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).