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MacroExpires May 15, 2026

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$17.5K

Liquidity

$36.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.6pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:40
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 466h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 466.3h

    LOW
  • 13:41Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 466h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

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