Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-1.6pp
24h Vol
$170.97
Liquidity
$196.38
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 3¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 57h.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 04Resolution proximity
Expiry in 57h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 57 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 57.3h
- 06:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 57h.
Price movement
-1.6pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -49.6pp at 2d ago (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -40.3pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -39.3pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -45.1pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -44.5pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -49.6pp → 1¢
- 4d ago · +39.9pp → 41¢
- 4d ago · +38.9pp → 40¢
- 5d ago · +40.5pp → 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPolymarket Post Counter (tracker)TypeTracker / counterConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (4.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.