Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
-30.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$209.97
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 31pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $210 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 145.6h
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.3pp
to 1¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.9pp
to 3¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.4pp
to 3¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 3¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 37¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 47¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 37¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 29¢-6.5pp
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- 0¢-0.7pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/khamenei_irAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).