Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 7¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 12¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 209.4h
Price movement
-5.5pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -35.5pp at 05:00 (to 9¢).
Show top 8 of 35 hourly moves
- 01:00 · -24.5pp → 7¢
- 00:00 · -24.5pp → 7¢
- 22:00 · -25.0pp → 7¢
- 21:00 · -25.0pp → 7¢
- 20:00 · -25.0pp → 7¢
- 19:00 · -26.0pp → 6¢
- 17:00 · -24.5pp → 7¢
- 05:00 · -35.5pp → 9¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 17¢+2.5pp
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Other · Vol $0.00
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Other · Vol $10.00
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Market Description
In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for May 4 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Sevilla FC" if Sevilla FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.