Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 15°C on April 30?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$50.43
Liquidity
$4.9K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 08:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 20h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -40.9pp at 08:00 (to 0¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Alerts
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