Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 6?
Probability
82¢
1h
+69.5pp
24h
+50.5pp
24h Vol
$615.66
Liquidity
$4.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 5h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 51pp over 24h
Now 82¢; +69.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 5 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 5.0h
- 14:57SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 5h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+50.5pp over the last 24h, now 82¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 100¢+44.5
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
Other · Vol $250.5K
- 0¢-0.1
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Other · Vol $162.9K
- 0¢-42.4
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06?
Other · Vol $112.3K
- 18¢0.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $110.1K
- 3¢+0.7
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Other · Vol $97.9K
- 100¢+41.4
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-06?
Other · Vol $88.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on May 6 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
