MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $9.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified. If wreckage is located before the resolution date, but it unknown as to whether it came from MH370, this market may stay open until a consensus has been reached as to the wreckage's origin. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.