SportsExpires Apr 28, 2026

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5

Probability

37¢

1h

-31.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$5.0K

Liquidity

$859.93

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 03:00Apr 28, 2026, 05:14
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 5.8× turnover

    $5.0k traded against $860 of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 23.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  • 04
    Resolution proximity

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

  • 05
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 05:14Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    HIGH
  • 02:10Resolve

    Market resolved 3h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

+45.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for April 27 at 10:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
MLB.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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