UnclassifiedExpires Jan 1, 2027

Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+2.1pp

24h Vol

$12.50

Liquidity

$4.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 22:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 8¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Wide spread — 4.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6006.4h

    LOW

Price movement

+3.3pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 2d ago (to 3¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 22:33 · +3.9pp → 9¢
  • 20:00 · +3.0pp → 7¢
  • 17:00 · +3.1pp → 8¢
  • 12:00 · +3.1pp → 8¢
  • 10:00 · +3.7pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -3.3pp → 4¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
using the total token supply multiplied by the token price
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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