Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+2.1pp
24h Vol
$12.50
Liquidity
$4.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6006.4h
Price movement
+3.3pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 2d ago (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 22:33 · +3.9pp → 9¢
- 20:00 · +3.0pp → 7¢
- 17:00 · +3.1pp → 8¢
- 12:00 · +3.1pp → 8¢
- 10:00 · +3.7pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -3.3pp → 4¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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