Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$71.46
Liquidity
$12.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 108.1h
- 11:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 34¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 36¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 39¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 25¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 25¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
8- 2¢-2.6pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $707.3K
- 35¢-5.0pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $579.7K
- 87¢+1.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $560.9K
- 100¢+23.9pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $540.5K
- 100¢+12.4pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Other · Vol $412.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Afghanistan or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a Pakistani missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).