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OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$71.46

Liquidity

$12.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-13.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 108.1h

    LOW
  • 11:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Afghanistan or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a Pakistani missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).