Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-9.9pp
24h Vol
$3.9K
Liquidity
$21.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1579.5h
- 04:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1579h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:30PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.9pp
to 4¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.9pp
to 4¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.1pp
to 3¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.1pp
to 4¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 4¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 8¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.4pp
to 6¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 4¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 4¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 9¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 10¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 14¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Peru’s conservative presidential candidate, Rafael López Aliaga, urged authorities to annul the April 12, 2026, general election, alleging electoral manipulation. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the results of the April 12, 2026, Peruvian general election are officially invalidated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Such invalidation must occur through authorized officials, government agencies, or competent state entities with the legal authority to nullify election results, for example through a ruling by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones or a binding decision by the Tribunal Constitucional del Perú that results in the annulment or re-run of the election. A “Yes” resolution will also occur if a new general election is officially scheduled by the relevant Peruvian authorities before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, in a manner that explicitly supersedes or replaces the April 12, 2026, election. The primary resolution source will be official information from the the government of Peru; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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