Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?
Probability
71¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$97.82
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6023.5h
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 70¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 63¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 61¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 57¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 56¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 56¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 56¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 66¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).