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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?

Probability

71¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

+5.0pp

24h Vol

$97.82

Liquidity

$2.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+13.5pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 22:00Apr 24, 2026, 21:32
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6023.5h

    LOW
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 70¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 63¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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