PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Probability

84¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

+18.0pp

24h Vol

$156.4K

Liquidity

$35.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+15.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 03:00May 12, 2026, 02:18
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-12T02-20Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 18pp over 24h

    Now 84¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 4.4× turnover

    $156.4k traded against $35.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 18.0pp in 24h with 4.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 79¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5601.7h

    LOW
  • 02:20Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 18.0pp in 24h with 4.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+18.0pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.

Biggest hourly move: +37.0pp at 21:00 (to 86¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • 02:18 · +36.0pp → 84¢
  • 01:00 · +36.0pp → 84¢
  • 23:00 · +34.0pp → 82¢
  • 22:00 · +35.0pp → 83¢
  • 21:00 · +37.0pp → 86¢
  • 20:00 · +31.0pp → 80¢
  • 18:00 · +30.0pp → 79¢
  • 3d ago · -21.0pp → 48¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventStarmer out by...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

prime minister

Reason

Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Starmer out by December 31, 2026?"?

As of Tue, 12 May 2026 02:20:14 GMT, YES is priced at 84% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +18.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +15.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$156.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.7M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $35.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket