Essential-Diarist
0x0a7aaf83341b52df34e8ffef52aa295538d6df1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.0K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
100%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6686 shares @ 50.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.6K
$3.2K
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2000 shares @ 60.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$261.00
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1018 shares @ 6.7¢·now 36.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$368.62
$300.14
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 45.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$317.50
$92.50
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
500 shares @ 47.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$242.50
$7.50
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
386 shares @ 5.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$208.48
$189.17
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
1000 shares @ 2.9¢·now 18.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$180.42
$151.22
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1826 shares @ 9.8¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.46
$-4.56
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1100 shares @ 11.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.50
$15.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6686 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$130.38
$-3.2K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?$8.78Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?$12.20Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$15.00Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$0.04Jul 28, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$6.00Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$0.23Jul 28, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?$1.49Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$7.50Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$6.00Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Allah again by July 31?$8.75Jul 28, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.43Jul 28, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.20Jul 28, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.20Jul 28, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.20Jul 28, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.77Jul 28, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$7.50Jul 28, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$15.00Jul 28, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$8.30Jul 28, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?$4.50Jul 28, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Allah again by July 31?$10.56Jul 28, 03:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
71 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.