Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31?
Probability
31¢
1h
+5.0pp
24h
+7.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$80.56
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryWall Street JournalTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 31¢; +5.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 45.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryWall Street JournalTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 713.2h
- 06:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+7.5pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: -32.5pp at 06:00 (to 22¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -32.5pp → 22¢
- 04:00 · -32.0pp → 18¢
- 03:00 · -30.5pp → 20¢
- 01:00 · -21.0pp → 29¢
- 15:00 · -18.0pp → 26¢
- 14:00 · -24.0pp → 19¢
- 13:00 · -19.0pp → 25¢
- 11:00 · -21.5pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Donald Trump initiates or refiles a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. Both novel lawsuits and amended complaints against the Wall Street Journal will qualify, including amended complaints that assert new or revised allegations. Appeals, motions for reconsideration, or other actions that do not assert new or amended claims will not count. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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