Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?

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   Down 7pp over 24h

   Now 29¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.

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   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

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   Wide spread — 50.8¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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On March 31, 2026, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,” which directs the federal government to compile lists of verified U.S. citizens eligible to vote in each state and restricts the distribution of mail-in ballots to individuals appearing on approved voter lists. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any US court blocks the implementation of any portion of the executive order titled “Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections” in any part of the United States by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any official court action that temporarily halts or permanently blocks implementation of this executive order (e.g., a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or substantially similar order) will qualify. Filings, hearings, or statements without an operative order will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant courts, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.