Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$52.63
Liquidity
$857.06
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 43.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Expiry in 5h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 5 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 5.5h
- 22:31SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 5h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.5pp at 1d ago (to 30¢).
Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 21:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 20:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 18:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 15:00 · -16.0pp → 36¢
- 14:00 · -16.5pp → 36¢
- 12:00 · -16.0pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -21.5pp → 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Davey Grant and Adrian Luna Martinetti at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (43.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.