US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-1.8pp
24h Vol
$607.12
Liquidity
$19.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 4¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $19.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 212.9h
Price movement
-1.8pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.2pp at 2d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -20.9pp → 5¢
- 1d ago · -21.9pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · -20.7pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -20.9pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -20.9pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -26.2pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -25.4pp → 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government or military publicly announces that the Civil Military Coordination Center (CMCC) located in Kiryat Gat, Israel will be shut down, absorbed into a successor entity, or that all United States military personnel will be withdrawn from the Center, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the announced shutdown, closure, transition, or withdrawal has actually occurred. Announcements of partial personnel reductions will not alone qualify. However, an announcement that CMCC will be absorbed into a successor entity may qualify even if some US military personnel remain in the successor entity. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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