Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

1. 1

   Down 5pp over 24h

   Now 66¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $18.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.