Will 100T make a roster change before August?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$320.77
Liquidity
$698.37
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+67.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: hltv.org
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will 100T make a roster change before August? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will 100T make a roster change before August? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Biggest hourly move: +52.5pp at Jun 20, 00:00 UTC (to 82¢).
Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
- Jun 20, 11:00 UTC · +49.0pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 09:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 08:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 06:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 05:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 03:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 02:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
- Jun 20, 00:00 UTC · +52.5pp → 82¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves 100 Thieves's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of 100 Thieves" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/8474/100-thieves#tab-rosterBox) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: rain, poiii, sirah, device, Ag1l, Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starter lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different 5-player active roster on HLTV. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event will not count. For matches and events, the stand-in appears in the active 5-player lineup but with a clear marker (e.g., [SI]) to distinguish them from the core roster. The primary resolution source for this market will be HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will 100T make a roster change before August?"?
As of Wed, 24 Jun 2026 08:51:07 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +67.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$320.77 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $698.37. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.