Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$51.01
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 4.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 885.4h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.8pp at 22:00 (to 4¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 00:00 · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 22:00 · -5.8pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · +3.4pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · +3.7pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.