Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-16.9pp
24h Vol
$90.00
Liquidity
$234.94
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 17pp over 24h
Now 31¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 826h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 60.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 826.0h
- 13:58SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 826h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 44¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 45¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 34¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 34¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.8pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.3pp
to 42¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 42¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 42¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.8pp
to 42¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 42¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 41¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 43¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 40¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 40¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.9pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.2pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.7pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.8pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.7pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.9pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.3pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by La Liga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (60.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).