Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-4.1pp
24h Vol
$299.32
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 7¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.3h
- 13:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 9¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 9¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 12¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 12¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 14¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 14¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.6pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).