Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Probability
45¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$143.15
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 45¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 64.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.2h
- 15:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1568h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 45¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 45¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 47¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 48¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (64.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).