Complex-Substance
0x16ef1f5b4e6f3809ee68d74109581804ab32534f
Quality score
100/100
Open positions
12
Open notional
$892.11
Total PnL
$257.60
Realised
$-36.72
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
1126 shares @ 17.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$489.89
$293.72
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$180.00
$30.00
- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
135 shares @ 32.3¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$80.27
$36.76
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
75 shares @ 47.9¢·now 68.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$50.89
$15.02
- YES
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
48 shares @ 67.0¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.54
$12.69
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
40 shares @ 40.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.01
$14.83
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 36.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$14.17
$8.77
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
3 shares @ 19.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.02
$0.37
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
10 shares @ 35.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.32
$-3.17
- YES
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
411 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-50.85
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.015h ago
- YIELD$0.011d ago
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.692d ago
- TRADEBUYWill any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?$64.142d ago
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$55.662d ago
- YIELD$0.022d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.143d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$14.083d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$25.683d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$6.403d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$3.353d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$3.353d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$6.503d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$2.503d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$2.003d ago
- YIELD$0.013d ago
- YIELD$0.014d ago
- YIELD$0.025d ago
- YIELD$0.026d ago
- YIELD$0.017d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $140.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 23d ago
- Last active
- 5h ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.