Complex-Substance
0x16ef1f5b4e6f3809ee68d74109581804ab32534f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$392.05
Total PnL
$297.59
Realised
$175.60
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
384 shares @ 17.4¢·now 54.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$209.44
$142.50
- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
135 shares @ 32.3¢·now 83.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.38
$68.87
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1247 shares @ 3.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$64.20
$26.80
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
10 shares @ 40.4¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.65
$1.61
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
10 shares @ 35.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.37
$-3.12
- YES
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
411 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-50.85
- YES
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
270 shares @ 22.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-60.66
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
21 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.17
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$3.39Jun 13, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$74.84Jun 13, 06:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$1.7KJun 9, 19:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 2, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?$14.99Jun 1, 11:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 31, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.51May 30, 02:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $17.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 12:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.