What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ariana Grande feature Drake on Petal?"?

As of Tue, 05 May 2026 22:31:23 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 31, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $0.00. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $4.00.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-ariana-grande-feature-drake-on-petal-336-843 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-ariana-grande-feature-drake-on-petal-336-843/markdown.

EntertainmentExpires Jul 31, 2026

Creator

Will Ariana Grande feature Drake on Petal?

Probability

48¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.00

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 30, 2026, 20:00May 5, 2026, 22:31

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-05T22-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 94.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (94.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 2065.5h
LOW
22:31Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed artists who feature on Ariana Grande's album "Petal". To qualify as "featured", the listed artist must be credited on at least one song on the album according to at least one major streaming platform: namely Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, or YouTube Music. If the album fails to release by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket