PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 9, 2026
Creator

Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

23¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$20.00

Liquidity

$6.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
1007550250
24¢
May 7, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 08:22 UTC
updated 08:22:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T08-22Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 23¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 9, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 615.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.

Biggest hourly move: +18.5pp at 17:00 (to 43¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · +18.5pp → 43¢
  • May 10, 12:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 25¢
updated 08:22:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:22:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMaine Governor Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

election

Reason

Question text contains "election" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 08:22:38 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 9, 2026 (2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$20.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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