Loading shell…
MacroExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$9.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 12:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:15
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1572.7h

    LOW
  • 11:15Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1573h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:15Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.2pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.6pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.9pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (6.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).