PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 23, 2026

Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Probability

47¢

1h

-4.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$42.92

Liquidity

$23.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+15.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 47¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $23.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 52¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1395.1h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

Biggest hourly move: +19.0pp at 1d ago (to 56¢).

Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 20:00 · +11.0pp → 51¢
  • 19:00 · +12.0pp → 51¢
  • 17:00 · +13.5pp → 52¢
  • 15:00 · +9.0pp → 47¢
  • 14:00 · +9.0pp → 47¢
  • 12:00 · +9.5pp → 47¢
  • 11:00 · +7.0pp → 46¢
  • 09:00 · +7.0pp → 46¢
  • 08:00 · +9.5pp → 47¢
  • 06:00 · +6.0pp → 45¢
  • 05:00 · +11.0pp → 45¢
  • 03:00 · +7.5pp → 47¢
  • 02:00 · +7.5pp → 47¢
  • 00:00 · +8.0pp → 47¢
  • 22:00 · +8.5pp → 47¢
  • 21:00 · +7.5pp → 46¢
  • 1d ago · +8.5pp → 47¢
  • 1d ago · +8.0pp → 46¢
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 44¢
  • 1d ago · +19.0pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · +6.0pp → 44¢
  • 1d ago · +6.0pp → 43¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 42¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 48¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 43¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +9.5pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 37¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 23, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in th
Link
democrats.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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