Will Christine Bish advance from the CA-03 primary election?
Probability
23¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 23¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 898.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 21¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 21¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 21¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 22¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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