Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?
Probability
52¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 52¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 467h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 467.1h
- 12:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 467h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Drake is expected to release his new album "ICEMAN" in 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone on the specified transcript for any track on the officially released full "ICEMAN" album. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. Samples or clips of audio where people are speaking or singing which are included in the album will qualify toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. AI-generated audio will count toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. In the case a term is censored on a relevant transcript, audio may be consulted to verify that a qualifying mention occurred. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market will resolve according to the initial release of the full album on a qualifying streaming platform. Releases consisting only of individual songs or remixes released later will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the audio transcripts for this album provided by the listed streaming platforms in the following order of priority: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Tidal (e.g., Spotify will be used unless it does not provide a necessary transcript, then Apple Music will be used, etc.). If no such album is released in full by by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to based on what has been released up to that point. If the album is not released on any of the listed platforms by the specified end date, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).